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Description

The Groundswell Spatial Population and Migration Projections at One-Eighth Degree According to SSPs and RCPs, 2010-2050, data set provides a baseline population distribution for 2010 and projections from 2020 to 2050, in ten-year increments, of population distribution and internal climate-related and other migration. The projections are produced using the NCAR-CIDR Spatial Population Downscaling Model developed by the CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The model incorporates assumptions based on future development scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways or SSPs) and emissions trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs). The SSPs include SSP2, representing a middle-of-the road future, and SSP4, representing an unequal development future. Climate models using low and high emissions scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, then drive climate impact models on crop productivity and water availability from the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Sea-level rise impacts in the coastal zone are estimated to be 1 meter under RCP2.6 and 2 meters under RCP8.5, to account for potential storm surge or coastal flooding. Three scenarios are generated, a pessimistic reference scenario combining SSP4 and RCP8.5, a more climate-friendly scenario combining SSP4 and RCP2.6, and a more inclusive development scenario combining SSP2 and RCP8.5, and each scenario represents an ensemble of four model runs combining different climate impact models. The modeling work was funded and developed jointly with The World Bank, and covers most World Bank client countries, with reports released in 2018 and 2021 that address different regions and provide full methodological details.

Product Summary

Platforms
MODELS
Instruments
Computer
Spatial Extent

N: 56 S: -56 E: 180 W: -180

Location
CAPE VERDE ,
COMOROS ,
INDONESIA ,
MADAGASCAR ,
MALAYSIA ,
MALDIVES ,
MAURITIUS ,
PAPUA NEW GUINEA ,
PHILIPPINES ,
SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE ,
SRI LANKA ,
TIMOR-LESTE ,
AFGHANISTAN ,
ALBANIA ,
ALGERIA ,
ANGOLA ,
ARGENTINA ,
ARMENIA ,
AZERBAIJAN ,
BANGLADESH ,
BELIZE ,
BENIN ,
BHUTAN ,
BOLIVIA ,
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA ,
BOTSWANA ,
BRAZIL ,
BULGARIA ,
BURKINA FASO ,
BURUNDI ,
CAMBODIA ,
CAMEROON ,
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC ,
CHAD ,
CHILE ,
CHINA ,
COLOMBIA ,
CONGO ,
COSTA RICA ,
COTE D'IVOIRE ,
CROATIA ,
DJIBOUTI ,
ECUADOR ,
EGYPT ,
EL SALVADOR ,
EQUATORIAL GUINEA ,
ERITREA ,
ETHIOPIA ,
FRENCH GUIANA ,
GABON ,
GAMBIA ,
GEORGIA ,
GHANA ,
GUATEMALA ,
GUINEA ,
GUINEA-BISSAU ,
GUYANA ,
HONDURAS ,
INDIA ,
KAZAKHSTAN ,
KENYA ,
KOSOVO ,
LESOTHO ,
LIBERIA ,
LIBYA ,
MALAWI ,
MALI ,
MAURITANIA ,
MEXICO ,
MONGOLIA ,
MONTENEGRO ,
MOROCCO ,
MOZAMBIQUE ,
NAMIBIA ,
NEPAL ,
NICARAGUA ,
NIGER ,
NIGERIA ,
PAKISTAN ,
PANAMA ,
PARAGUAY ,
PERU ,
ROMANIA ,
RWANDA ,
SENEGAL ,
SERBIA ,
SIERRA LEONE ,
SOMALIA ,
SOUTH AFRICA ,
SOUTH SUDAN ,
SUDAN ,
SURINAME ,
TAJIKISTAN ,
TANZANIA ,
THAILAND ,
TOGO ,
TUNISIA ,
TURKEY ,
TURKMENISTAN ,
UGANDA ,
URUGUAY ,
UZBEKISTAN ,
VENEZUELA ,
VIETNAM ,
ZAMBIA ,
ZIMBABWE
Coordinate System
CARTESIAN
Granule Spatial Representation
CARTESIAN
Temporal Extent
2010-01-01 to 2050-12-31
Data Partner
Earth Science Data Information System (ESDIS)
Concept ID
C3540918701-ESDIS
Data State
COMPLETE
Number of Files/Granules
224
Processing Level
4
Published
Updated
Science Keywords
Sea Level Rise

Citation

Citation is critically important for dataset documentation and discovery. This dataset is openly shared, without restriction, in accordance with the EOSDIS Data Use and Citation Guidance.

Copy Citation

CUNY Institute For Demographic Research-CIDR-City University Of New York, Center For International Earth Science Information Network-CIESIN-Columbia University, & Bank, T. W. (2022). Groundswell Spatial Population and Migration Projections at One-Eighth Degree According to SSPs and RCPs, 2010-2050 (Version 1.00) [Data set]. Palisades, NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). https://doi.org/10.7927/C5KQ-FB78 Date Accessed: 2026-05-12

Documents

USER'S GUIDE

GENERAL DOCUMENTATION

Publications Citing This Dataset

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Title Year Author Topic
A Survey of Change Point Detection in Dynamic Graphs Zhou, Yuxuan, Gao, Shang, Guo, Dandan, Wei, Xiaohui, Rokne, Jon, Wang, Hui Sea Level Rise
Assessing economic impacts of future GLOFs in Nepal's Everest region under different SSP scenarios using three-dimensional simulations Furian, Wilhelm, Sauter, Tobias Sea Level Rise, Reforestation, Terrestrial Ecosystems, Permafrost, Rock Glaciers, Glacier Elevation/Ice Sheet Elevation, Glacier Motion/Ice Sheet Motion, Glacier Thickness/Ice Sheet Thickness, Glacier Topography/Ice Sheet Topography, Glaciers, Ice Sheets, Icebergs, Ice Deformation, Ice Depth/Thickness, Ice Edges, Ice Extent, Ice Floes, Ice Growth/Melt, Ice Roughness, Ice Temperature, Ice Types, Icebergs, Leads, Pack Ice, Polynyas, Reflectance, Sea Ice Motion, Ice Extent, Ice Growth/Melt, Ice Motion, Ice Velocity, Lake Ice, Permafrost, River Ice, Snow Cover, Landslides, Aeolian Landforms, Coastal Landforms, Fluvial Landforms, Glacial Landforms, Karst Landforms, Tectonic Landforms, Land Use/Land Cover Classification, Landscape Ecology, Landscape Patterns, Landscape Processes, Reforestation, Surface Roughness, Terrain Elevation, Topographic Effects, Barrier Islands, Beaches, Deltas, Dunes, Estuaries, Fjords, Inlets, Lagoons, Mangroves, Marshes, Rocky Coasts, Shorelines, Wind Waves, Surface Winds, Ice Deformation, Ice Depth/Thickness, Ice Edges, Ice Extent, Ice Floes, Ice Roughness, Ice Types, Icebergs, Leads, Pack Ice, Polynyas, Sea Ice Motion, Glacial Landforms, Caldera, Cinder Cone, Faults, Folds, Geyser, Graben, Horst, Lava Dome, Lava Plain, Maar, Mountains, Plateau, Ridge, Rift Valley, Tuya, Volcano, Tectonic Landforms, Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics, Volcanic Activity, Glacier Elevation/Ice Sheet Elevation, Glacier Motion/Ice Sheet Motion, Glacier Topography/Ice Sheet Topography, Glaciers, Ice Sheets, Icebergs, Ice Extent, Ice Growth/Melt, Ice Motion, Ice Velocity, Lake Ice, Permafrost, River Ice
Infectious disease responses to human climate change adaptations Titcomb, Georgia, Uelmen, Johnny, Janko, Mark, Nunn, Charles Sea Level Rise
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